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April 25, 2024
FOMC Preview For May 1: Signaling Concern on Inflation, Tapering Quantitative Tightening
April 25, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on May 1 and rates look sure to remain at the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. The statement is likely to see some adjustments to reflect recent disappointment on inflation while repeating that more confidence on inflation moving towards target is needed before easing. I
Preview: Due May 2 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Deficit to increase on weaker goods exports
April 25, 2024 4:57 PM UTC
We expect March’s trade deficit to see a marginal increase to $69.2bn from $68.9bn, with a 2.0% decline in exports and a 1.5% decline in imports. This would be the fourth straight increase in the deficit to its highest level since April 2023.
Preview: Due April 26 - U.S. March Personal Income and Spending - Upside risk in Core PCE prices given Q1 outcome
April 25, 2024 3:41 PM UTC
March personal income and spending data will be largely old news as we have already seen Q1 totals in the GDP report. The GDP details are consistent with gains of 0.6% in personal income, 0.8% in personal spending and 0.4% in core PCE prices, all 0.1% above our pre-GDP forecasts of 0.5%, 0.7% and 0.
CBRT Kept Key Rate Unchanged at 50%
April 25, 2024 3:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on April 25 despite galloping inflation, and pressure on FX lately. According to the CBRT statement, monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persist
U.S. March Pending Home Sales bounce follows sharp February rise in Existing Home Sales
April 25, 2024 2:14 PM UTC
March has seen a stronger than expected 3.4% increase in pending home sales. Normally pending home sales lead existing home sales but in this case we appear to be seeing a catch up with strength in February existing home sales.
Q1 U.S. GDP Slows on Imports and Inventories, Core PCE Prices Stronger on the Quarter
April 25, 2024 1:14 PM UTC
Q4 GDP has come in weaker than expected at 1.6% annualized but with a stronger than expected 3.7% annualized increase in the core PCE price index. Weaker inventories and stronger imports are the main reason for the GDP slowing so the data is not a clear signal of underlying weakness. Lower initial (
Norges Bank Preview: Nothing New to Note?
April 25, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
Surprising few, the Norges Bank Board is very likely to leave its policy rate at 4.5% for a third successive meeting when it gives it next verdict on May 3. It is also likely to retain the thinking first aired at the December meeting, namely the ‘policy to stay on hold for some time ahead’ rhe
JPY flows: JPY weakness intensifies, intervention possible, but...
April 25, 2024 7:07 AM UTC
JPY weakness intensified overnight and increased the potential for intervention. This may be seen in the next few days, and the JPY does have potential to rally sharply given the huge real decline in recent years. But a turn higher in risk premia looks necessary to trigger a long term reversal of cu
BoJ's Intervention and its impact
April 25, 2024 6:24 AM UTC
In the period of time when JPY significantly weakens or strengthens, BoJ will intervene in the FX market either through verbal or actual intervention. As JPY weakened significantly in the past months, once again we found ourselves in the proximity of FX intervention with unknowns for anonymity is ke