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FOMC Still Waiting For Data to Justify Easing
May 1, 2024 7:58 PM UTC
The May 1 FOMC statement, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, while noting recent inflation disappointment, did not deliver a strong pivot in tone. The Fed is still waiting for data to allow easing to take place, but still expects inflation to slow, and looks ready to respond once data
Markets: Fed Rather Than Middle East Worries
April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway. However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers
China: Q1 Upside Surprise, but March Disappoints
April 16, 2024 8:33 AM UTC
Q1 GDP upside surprise was driven mainly by public sector investment. With the government still to implement the Yuan 1trn of special sovereign bonds for infrastructure spending, public investment will likely remain a key driving force. However, the breakdown of the March data show that retail s
Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Pause after a strong month
May 3, 2024 5:00 PM UTC
After a 0.7% increase in March, we expect April retail sales to rise by only 0.3%. Ex autos we expect a 0.2% increase to follow a 1.1% rise in March, while ex autos and gasoline we expect sales to be unchanged after a 1.0% increase in March which was the strongest since October 2022.
U.S. April ISM Services - Weakness may be overstated
May 3, 2024 2:24 PM UTC
April’s ISM services index of 49.4 from 51.4 has fallen below neutral for the first time since December 2022. That dip was explained by bad weather. There is no obvious erratic factor here to explain the weakness, but the details suggests that weakness may be overstated.
Russian Economy Expands by 4.2% YoY in March, and 5.4% in Q1
May 3, 2024 2:14 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 4.2% YoY in March owing to strong fiscal stimulus, high military spending, invigorating consumer demand and investments. We now foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.6% in 2024
U.S. April Employment - On the weak side in all key details, following strength in March
May 3, 2024 1:18 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll is on the low side of consensus across the board, with a 175k increase (though the 167k private sector rise is only modestly below consensus), with a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings, a fall in the workweek and a rise in unemployment to 3.9% from 3.8%. The data should
EMFX: Diverging On Domestic Forces Not Less Fed Easing Hopes
May 3, 2024 10:45 AM UTC
While U.S. economic developments, plus Fed policy prospects, will be important in terms of EM currency developments, domestic politics and fundamentals will also be decisive. These can keep the South Africa Rand volatile in the remainder of 2024, given the risk of a coalition government and African
Indonesia CPI Review: Inflation Inches Down but BI on Alert
May 3, 2024 10:33 AM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation eased marginally to 3% yr/yr in April on the back of declining food prices. Despite the easing, food price remain the key inflationary factor. Additionally, imported inflation as the IDR comes under pressure could keep inflation elevated in the near term. Bank
FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 3rd
May 3, 2024 9:04 AM UTC
USD to get support from US employment report
ISM services should be neutral, but some downside risks
JPY strength to continue long run, but some consolidation may be seen near term
NOK has upside scope despite recent weakness with Norges Bank likely to remain steady
Norges Bank Review: Even More Caution?
May 3, 2024 8:46 AM UTC
Surprising few, the Norges Bank Board left the policy rate at 4.5% for a third successive meeting at its latest Board meeting. It also retained the thinking first aired at the December meeting, namely ‘policy to stay on hold for some time ahead’ rhetoric, this more formally evident in what wer
Turkiye’s Inflation Continues to Jump in April with 69.8%
May 3, 2024 7:40 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 3 that Turkish CPI ticked up 69.8% annually and 3.2% monthly in April due to increases in transportation, restaurant & hotel and education prices, coupled with the lingering impacts of the wage hikes on the services sector. We feel u
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 3rd
May 3, 2024 5:57 AM UTC
USD to get support from US employment report
ISM services should be neutral, but some downside risks
JPY strength to continue long run, but some consolidation may be seen near term
NOK has upside scope despite recent weakness with Norges Bank likely to remain steady