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May 1, 2024 7:58 PM UTC
The May 1 FOMC statement, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, while noting recent inflation disappointment, did not deliver a strong pivot in tone. The Fed is still waiting for data to allow easing to take place, but still expects inflation to slow, and looks ready to respond once data
April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway. However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers
April 16, 2024 8:33 AM UTC
Q1 GDP upside surprise was driven mainly by public sector investment. With the government still to implement the Yuan 1trn of special sovereign bonds for infrastructure spending, public investment will likely remain a key driving force. However, the breakdown of the March data show that retail s
May 8, 2024 2:20 PM UTC
China equities can see a tactical bounce of 5-10% in the coming months. Cheap valuations and underweight global fund positions means that the scale of pessimism only has to get less bad on the economy and China authorities attitude towards businesses. While we see a tactical opportunity, we do
May 8, 2024 1:36 PM UTC
In our quarterly outlook on March 22 we looked for Q1 US GDP to rise by 2.4% annualized followed by growth of near 1.0% in the remaining three quarters. While Q1 at 1.6% came in weaker than expected details were constructive for Q2 for which we now expect a 2.0% annualized gain. We continue to expec
May 8, 2024 12:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The offensives at the front lines started to pick up steam after March/April as the Russian forces plan for their larger summer 2024 offensive operation, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections in November. In the meantime, U.S. approved a $61 billion warti
May 8, 2024 8:24 AM UTC
It very much seemed to be a question of when, not if, as far as policy easing is concerned for the Riksbank. In this regard, albeit surprising in terms of timing, the Riksbank delivered, cutting its policy rate by 25 bp (to 3.75%), despite clear concerns it has flagged about recent and continued k